One last round of chemo? Insights from conversations between oncologists and lung cancer patients about prognosis and treatment decisions

One more chemo or one too many? The increasing use of expensive cancer treatments close to the patient's death is often explained by oncologists' failure to communicate to patients how close to dying they are, implying that patients are often both ill-prepared and over-treated when they die. This article aims at interrogating the politically charged task of prognosticating. Drawing on an ethnographic study of conversations between oncologists and patients with metastatic lung cancer in a Danish oncology clinic, I show that oncologists utilize, rather than avoid, prognostication in their negotiations with patients about treatment withdrawal. The study informs the emerging sociology of prognosis in three ways: First, prognostication is not only about foreseeing and foretelling, but also about shaping the patient's process of dying. Second, oncologists prognosticate differently depending on the level of certainty about the patient's trajectory. To unfold these differences, the article provides a terminology that distinguishes between four ‘modes of prognostication’, namely hinting, informing, calibrating and organizing. Third, prognosticating can unfold over time through multiple consultations, emphasizing the relevance of adopting methodologies enabling the study of prognosticating over time. •Study of lung oncologists' interactions with patients about withdrawal of treatment.•Oncologists' prognostication foresees, foretells, and shapes the process of dying.•Prognostication happens through modes of hinting, informing, calibrating and organizing.•Prognostication can unfold over multiple consultations, requiring longitudinal observations.