Relationship Between Diabetic Retinopathy Stages and Risk of Major Lower-Extremity Arterial Disease in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

We evaluated the association between diabetic retinopathy stages and lower-extremity arterial disease (LEAD), its prognostic value, and the influence of potential contributors to this relationship in a prospective cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. Diabetic retinopathy was staged at baseline as absent, nonproliferative, or proliferative. A Cox regression model was fitted in order to compute the hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) for major LEAD (lower-limb amputation or revascularization) during follow-up by baseline retinopathy stages. The retinopathy-LEAD association was assessed in subgroups by age, sex, diabetes duration, HbA , systolic blood pressure, diabetic kidney disease, smoking, and macrovascular disease at baseline. The performance of retinopathy in stratifying LEAD risk was assessed by using the C statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Among 1,320 participants without a history of LEAD at baseline, 94 (7.1%) developed a major LEAD during a 7.1-year median follow-up (incidence rate 9.6 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI 7.8-11.7]). The LEAD incidence rate (per 1,000 person-years) increased as retinopathy worsened: it was 5.5 (95% CI 3.9-7.8) in participants in whom retinopathy was absent, 14.6 (11.1-19.3) in those with nonproliferative retinopathy, and 20.1 (11.1-36.3) in those with proliferative retinopathy. Nonproliferative retinopathy (adjusted HR 2.31 [95% CI 1.43-3.81], = 0.0006) and proliferative retinopathy (3.14 [1.40-6.15], = 0.007) remained associated with major LEAD. No heterogeneity was observed across subgroups. Retinopathy enhanced the C statistic (+0.023 [95% CI 0.003-0.044], = 0.02), IDI (0.209 [0.130-0.321], < 0.001), and NRI (0.562 [0.382-0.799], < 0.001) values for risk of LEAD, beyond traditional risk factors. An independent dose-response relationship was identified between diabetic retinopathy stages and major LEAD. Retinopathy yielded incremental prognostic information for stratifying risk of LEAD, suggesting its usefulness as a predictor of LEAD.