Machine learning-based FDG PET-CT radiomics for outcome prediction in larynx and hypopharynx squamous cell carcinoma

To determine whether machine learning-based radiomic feature analysis of baseline integrated 2-[18F]-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose (FDG) positron-emission tomography (PET) computed tomography (CT) predicts disease progression in patients with locally advanced larynx and hypopharynx squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) receiving (chemo)radiotherapy. Patients with larynx and hypopharynx SCC treated with definitive (chemo)radiotherapy at a specialist cancer centre undergoing pre-treatment PET-CT between 2008 and 2017 were included. Tumour segmentation and radiomic analysis was performed using LIFEx software (University of Paris-Saclay, France). Data were assigned into training (80%) and validation (20%) cohorts adhering to TRIPOD guidelines. A random forest classifier was created for four predictive models using features determined by recursive feature elimination: (A) PET, (B) CT, (C) clinical, and (D) combined PET-CT parameters. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Seventy-two patients (40 hypopharynx 32 larynx tumours) were included, mean age 61 (range 41–77) years, 50 (69%) were men. Forty-five (62.5%) had chemoradiotherapy, 27 (37.5%) had radiotherapy alone. Median follow-up 26 months (range 12–105 months). Twenty-seven (37.5%) patients progressed within 12 months. ROC AUC for models A, B, C, and D were 0.91, 0.94, 0.88, and 0.93 in training and 0.82, 0.72, 0.70, and 0.94 in validation cohorts. Parameters in model D were metabolic tumour volume (MTV), maximum CT value, minimum standardized uptake value (SUVmin), grey-level zone length matrix (GLZLM) small-zone low grey-level emphasis (SZLGE) and histogram kurtosis. FDG PET-CT derived radiomic features are potential predictors of early disease progression in patients with locally advanced larynx and hypopharynx SCC. •Radiomic features predict disease recurrence in larynx/hypopharyx cancer.•Machine-learning methods selected the radiomic/clinical features for the 4 models.•The 4 models were PET only, CT only, clinical features only and combined PET and CT.•The combined PET/CT radiomics model had the highest AUC value (0.94).