Performance of the AusSCORE II and STS Score for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in a New Zealand Population

The updated Australian System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (AusSCORE II) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Score are well-established tools in cardiac surgery for estimating operative mortality risk. No validation analysis of both risk models has been undertaken for a contemporary New Zealand population undergoing isolated coronary bypass surgery. We therefore aimed to assess the efficacy of these models in predicting mortality for New Zealand patients receiving isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). A prospective database was maintained of patients undergoing isolated CABG at a major tertiary referral centre in New Zealand between September 2014 and September 2017. This database collected the patients’ demographic, clinical, biochemical, operative and mortality data. The primary outcome measure was the correlation between the predicted AusSCORE II and STS Score mortality risks and the observed 30-day mortality events for all patients in the database using discrimination and calibration statistics. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test respectively. A total of 933 patients underwent isolated CABG during the 3-year study period. There were seven deaths in the study cohort occurring within 30 days of surgery. Discrimination analysis demonstrated the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the AusSCORE II and STS Score as 88.2% (95% CI: 85.9–90.2, p