Time Course of LDL Cholesterol Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease Event Risk

Incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) increases with increasing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) concentration and exposure duration. Area under the LDL-C versus age curve is a possible risk parameter. Data-based demonstration of this metric is unavailable and whether the time course of area accumulation modulates risk is unknown. Using CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study data, we assessed the relationship of area under LDL-C versus age curve to incident CVD event risk and modulation of risk by time course of area accumulation—whether risk increase for the same area increment is different at different ages. This prospective study included 4,958 asymptomatic adults age 18 to 30 years enrolled from 1985 to 1986. The outcome was a composite of nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, transient ischemic attack, heart failure hospitalization, cardiac revascularization, peripheral arterial disease intervention, or cardiovascular death. During a median 16-year follow-up after age 40 years, 275 participants had an incident CVD event. After adjustment for sex, race, and traditional risk factors, both area under LDL-C versus age curve and time course of area accumulation (slope of LDL-C curve) were significantly associated with CVD event risk (hazard ratio: 1.053; p