Using convolutional neural network for predicting cyanobacteria concentrations in river water

•Synthetic water quality data were generated by EFDC–NIER model.•Convolutional neural network model was developed to predict Microcystis biomass.•Convolutional neural network provided a good short-term prediction of Microcystis.•Convolutional neural network predictions were sensitive to temporal density of data. Machine learning modeling techniques have emerged as a potential means for predicting algal blooms. In this study, synthetic spatio-temporal water quality data for a river section were generated with a 3D water quality model and used to investigate the capability of a convolutional neural network (CNN) for predicting harmful cyanobacterial blooms. The CNN model displayed a reasonable capacity for short-term predictions of cyanobacteria (Microcystis) biomass. In the nowcasting of Microcystis, the CNN performance had a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.87. An increase in the forecast lead time resulted in a decrease in the prediction accuracy, reducing the NSE from 0.87 to 0.58. As the spatial observation density increased from 20% to 100% of the input image grids, the CNN prediction NSE had improved from 0.70 to 0.84. Adding noise to the data resulted in accuracy deterioration, but even at the noise amplitude of 10%, the accuracy was acceptable for some applications, with NSE = 0.76. Visualization of the CNN results characterized its performance variations across the studied river reach. Overall, this study successfully demonstrated the capability of the CNN model for cyanobacterial bloom prediction using high temporal frequency images. [Display omitted]