Quantitative Measures of Background Parenchymal Enhancement Predict Breast Cancer Risk

Higher categories of background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) increase breast cancer risk. However, current clinical BPE categorization is subjective. Using a semiautomated segmentation algorithm, we calculated quantitative BPE measures and investigated the utility of individual features and feature pairs in significantly predicting subsequent breast cancer risk compared with radiologist-assigned BPE category. In this retrospective case-control study, we identified 95 women at high risk of breast cancer but without a personal history of breast cancer who underwent breast MRI. Of these women, 19 subsequently developed breast cancer and were included as cases. Each case was age matched to four control patients (76 control patients total). Sociodemographic characteristics were compared between the cases and matched control patients using the Mann-Whitney test. From each dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI examination, quantitative fibroglandular tissue and BPE measures were computed by averaging enhancing voxels above enhancement ratio thresholds (0-100%), totaling the enhancing volume above thresholds (BPE volume in cm ), and estimating the percentage of enhancing tissue above thresholds relative to total breast volume (BPE%) on each gadolinium-enhanced phase. For the 91 imaging features generated, we compared predictive performance using conditional logistic regression with 80:20 hold-out cross validation and ROC curve analysis. ROC AUC was the figure of merit. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were also computed. All feature pairs were exhaustively searched to identify those with the highest AUC and Youden index. A DeLong test was used to compare predictive performance (AUCs). Women subsequently diagnosed with breast cancer were more likely to have mild, moderate, or marked BPE (odds ratio, 3.0; 95% CI, 0.9-10.0; = .07). According to ROC curve analysis, a BPE category threshold greater than minimal resulted in a maximized AUC (0.62) in distinguishing cases from control patients. Compared with BPE category, the first gadolinium-enhanced (phase 1) BPE% at the 30% and 40% enhancement ratio thresholds yielded significantly higher AUC values of 0.85 ( = .0007) and 0.84 ( = .0004), respectively. Feature combinations showed similar AUC values with improved sensitivity. Preliminary data indicate that quantitative BPE measures may outperform radiologist-assigned category in breast cancer risk prediction. Future risk prediction models that incorporate quantitative me