The relationship between satellite measured convective bursts and tropical cyclone intensification

High temporal resolution satellite IR measurements are used to analyze the relationship between the mean temperature of cloud canopy tops and the future maximum winds of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones. The measurements showed that prolonged surges of intense convection developed in the rear region surrounding cyclone depression centers before the maximum winds initially increased. When surges lasted for 9 hr or more, and the cloud-top temperature within 222 km of the cyclone centers was 238 K or less, then 71 percent of the time the maximum winds increased by 5 m/s or more within 24 hr. When intense convection was not present, similar maximum wind increases occurred only 37 percent of the time.