Heatwaves intensification in Australia: A consistent trajectory across past, present and future

Heatwaves are defined as unusually high temperature events that occur for at least three consecutive days with major impacts to human health, economy, agriculture and ecosystems. This paper investigates: 1) changes in heatwave characteristics such as peak temperature, number of events, frequency and duration over a past 67-year period in Australia; 2) projected changes in heatwave characteristics for this century in Queensland, northeast Australia; and 3) the avoided heatwave impacts of limiting global warming by 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C. The results reveal that heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration across Australia over the past 67 years, such intensification was particularly higher on recent decades. Downscaled future climate projections for Queensland suggest that heatwaves will further intensify over the current century. The projections also highlight that distinct climatic regions within Queensland may have different heatwave responses under global warming, where tropical and equatorial heatwaves appear to be more sensitive to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than temperate and arid regions. The results offer new insights to support climate adaptation and mitigation at regional scales. These findings are already being used by health and emergency services to inform the development of statewide policies to mitigate heatwave impacts. [Display omitted] •Heatwaves undergone major increases in the 2000's in comparison to previous decades.•Heatwaves have intensified in recent past and are projected to increase faster in future.•Heatwaves may be 85% more frequent if global warming increases from 1.5 to 2.0 °C.•Heatwaves may last up to a month if global warming increases from 1.5 to 3.0 °C.•The findings underpinned health and emergency policies to mitigate heatwaves.