Young adult predictors of alcohol dependence to age 53: a 44‐year prospective cohort study of Danish men

Aims To examine if (1) there is a positive association between drinking volume in young men and life‐time risk of alcohol dependence (AD) and (2) there are other associations between young adulthood factors and life‐time risk of AD. Design Prospective cohort study of sons of fathers with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and matched low‐risk controls without paternal AUD. Setting and participants A total of 204 men, who were assessed at baseline in 1979 at age 19–20 years, were followed through record linkage with Danish registers and consecutive psychiatric interviews at the ages of 33, 43 and 53 years. Measurements AD diagnoses were interview‐based according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd edition, or made by treating clinicians according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) revision 8 (ICD‐8) until 1993 and revision 10 (ICD‐10) from 1994.We estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the development of AD after adjustment for confounders including smoking, social status and paternal AUD. Findings The following variables from the examination at age 19–20 independently predicted life‐time AD: alcohol consumption > 21 beverages/week versus 0–21 [odds ratio (OR) = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.22–4.97], police contact (OR = 2.60, 95% CI = 1.28–5.28) and institutionalization related to the individual (OR = 2.90, 95% CI = 1.39–6.02). Compared with