Impact of increasing temperature anomalies and carbon dioxide emissions on wheat production

Climate change is one of the serious issues humankind is currently facing. It impacts almost all the processes in nature and threatens the existence of species and biodiversity; hence, the whole process of the food cycle. To mitigate the influence of climate change on vital processes in nature, we need to understand the pattern and magnitude of the relationship between climate change and impacted processes in nature. In this article, we explore the impact of climate change on wheat production in terms of short and long-run relationships between world wheat production, carbon dioxide emissions, and surface temperature anomalies. We present new information on the nexus between climate change and wheat production using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and ARDL bounds test of cointegration. We observe a significant cointegration relationship among world wheat production, carbon dioxide emissions, and surface temperature anomalies series. Lagged short-run impacts of temperature anomalies and carbon dioxide emissions are found significant. The long-run impact of both series on world wheat production is significant with a high correction speed to any instability between wheat production and the proxies of climate change. [Display omitted] •Significant cointegration between wheat production and climate change•Temperature anomalies and CO2 emissions are taken as the proxies of climate change.•One-degree Celsius warming corresponds to 90.4 million tons drop in wheat yield•One-ppm increase in CO2 emissions leads to 32.3 tons increase in wheat yield.•55% of disequilibrium between wheat production and climate change fixed in a year.