Is India on the right pathway to reduce CO2 emissions? Decomposing an enlarged Kaya identity using the LMDI method for the period 1990–2016

Nowadays, India is the third-largest CO2 emitter and energy consumer in the world, and, it is soon expected to surpass China as the most populated country. Therefore, it is of great interest to analyse how India is developing its energy transition to a lower-carbon economy. This work analyses the evolution of the main driving forces of CO2 emissions in India during the period 1990–2016 through the use of an enlarged version of the Kaya identity, which establishes a link between CO2 emissions, types of energy sources (16), size of the economic sectors (3) and value of the Gross Domestic Product. India's CO2 emissions increased by 276% in the period under study, due to the rapid economic growth of India, which has been the dominating driving force contributing to the increase in CO2 emissions by 241%, while the energy intensity has been the main one reducing them by approximately −47%. So far, the use of coal has supported the rapid economic growth and the contribution of renewable energy, although significant, is still short compared to the total amount of energy employed. Remarkably, the estimated value of the emission intensity for 2020 supposes a 26% reduction concerning the value in 2005. According to this result, India is on the right pathway to fulfil its Nationally Determined Contribution but not to reduce its net CO2 emissions. [Display omitted] •The per-capita income is the main contributor to CO2 emissions increase in India.•The energy intensity is the main contributor to CO2 emissions decrease in India.•The share of renewable energy in India has continuously dropped from 1990 to 2016.•India will reach its government target for 2020 regarding emission intensity.•India can fulfil its NDC without reducing its net CO2 emissions.