Structural and social-economic determinants of China's transport low-carbon development under the background of aging and industrial migration

This paper aims to explore structural and social-economic determinants of China's transport CO2 emissions (TCEs) from 2004 to 2016, by using logarithmic mean Divisa index (LMDI). Compared with existing studies, two new factors, i.e., spatial pattern and age structure, that should have impacts on TCEs, are considered in this study. Results show that during 2004–2016: (1) transportation demand and urbanization were dominant in TCEs growth, while energy intensity and industrial structure were the key factors of CO2 emissions reduction. (2) The effects exerted by age structure and CO2 emission factor change were relatively mild. The former one has a stable promoting effect, while the latter one inhibits TCEs growth. Additionally, the influence of spatial pattern on the growth of CO2 emissions from transportation was limited. (3) Energy structure and energy intensity played more important roles in reducing emissions of the transport sector in the eastern region. The effects of population size on the eastern region were much greater than those of the central and western regions, presenting the phenomenon of “eastern agglomeration”. (4) In Tianjin, energy intensity and energy structure did not perform well for TCEs. •This paper analyzed the nine drivers of China's transport CO2 emissions from 2004 to 2016.•Urbanization and transportation demand were the main drivers of CO2 emissions.•Energy intensity and industrial stnucture were the key emissions reduction factors.•The effects of age structure had a stable promoting effect.•Energy structural and energy intensity did not perform well for TCEs in all provinces.