Predicting future suicidal events in adolescents using the Concise Health Risk Tracking Self-Report (CHRT-SR)

Several self-report rating scales have been developed to assess suicidal ideation, yet most have limited utility in predicting future suicide attempts. This is particularly critical in adolescence, where suicide is the second leading cause of death. This study evaluated the Concise Health Risk Tracking Self-Report (CHRT-SR) as a prospective predictor of suicide attempts and events in high-risk adolescents enrolled in a suicide-prevention intensive outpatient program (IOP). Data were collected by retrospective chart review of adolescents treated in IOP for youth with severe suicidality. At baseline, youth completed the 14-item CHRT-SR (CHRT-SR14), which assesses suicide risk based on 3 subscales: Propensity, Impulsivity, and Suicidal Thoughts. Two outcomes were assessed: actual suicide attempts and suicidal events (suicide attempt, inpatient hospitalization, or emergency department visit) during the IOP. Of the 251 adolescents who completed the baseline CHRT-SR14, 26 had a suicidal event during IOP (mean time in IOP: 5.4 ± 2.3 weeks), of whom 14 had an actual suicide attempt. Youth with any suicidal event had higher scores than those without an event on the CHRT-SR14 Total (p = .005), Propensity (p = .008), and Suicidal Thoughts (p = .001) scales at baseline. Youth who made a suicide attempt had significantly higher scores than those without an event for the Total Score, Propensity, and Suicidal Thoughts subscales. CHRT-SR14 Total Score of 28 had a sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 56.5% in predicting suicide attempts. A score of 22 predicted suicidal events, with a sensitivity of 80.8% and specificity of 40.9%. CHRT-SR7 Total Score of 12 predicted suicide attempts, with a sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 53.4%. The CHRT-SR14 self-report predicts suicide attempts and events with at least 80% sensitivity and acceptable specificity in adolescents at high-risk for suicide. •The CHRT-SR predicts suicide attempts with at least 80% sensitivity and 50% specificity in suicidal adolescents.•Findings are consistent with previous reports that the CHRT-SR predicted suicidal events in adults with Bipolar Disorder.•This is one of the first rating scales to predict future suicide attempts with acceptable sensitivity or specificity.