Utility of serial measurement of biomarkers of cardiovascular stress and inflammation in systolic dysfunction

Abstract Aims Evidence links markers of systemic inflammation and heart failure (HF) with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and/or death. Biomarker levels, and the risk they indicate, may vary over time. We evaluated the utility of serial laboratory measurements of inflammatory biomarkers and HF, using time-dependent analysis. Methods and results We prospectively enrolled ambulatory patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤35% and a primary-prevention implanted cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). Levels of established inflammatory biomarkers [C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), suppression of tumourigenicity 2 (ST2), tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α)] and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) were assessed at 3-month intervals for 1 year. We assessed relationships between biomarkers modelled as time-dependent variables, VA, and death. Among 196 patients (66±14 years, LVEF 23±8%), 33 experienced VA, and 18 died. Using only baseline values, BNP predicted VA, and both BNP and ST2 predicted death. Using serial measurements at 3-month intervals, time-varying BNP independently predicted VA, and time-varying ST2 independently predicted death. C-statistic analysis revealed no significant benefit to repeated testing compared with baseline-only measurement. C-reactive protein, ESR, and TNF-α, either at baseline or over time, did not predict either endpoint. Conclusion In stable ambulatory patients with systolic cardiomyopathy and an ICD, BNP predicts ventricular tachyarrhythmia, and ST2 predicts death. Repeated laboratory measurements over a year’s time do not improve risk stratification beyond baseline measurement alone. Clinical Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01892462 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01892462). Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract