Incidence and Predictors of Dysglycemia and Regression to Normoglycemia in Indian Adolescents and Young Adults: 10-Year Follow-Up of the ORANGE Study

The prevalence of diabetes in youth is increasing worldwide in parallel with the obesity epidemic. This study aimed to determine the incidence rates of dysglycemia (diabetes or prediabetes) and evaluate the predictors of its progression or regression to normal glucose tolerance (NGT) in a cohort of children and adolescents studied in Chennai, South India. A longitudinal follow-up of the Obesity Reduction and Awareness of Noncommunicable Diseases through Group Education (ORANGE) cohort was performed after a median of 7.1 years ( = 845; 5928 person-years of follow-up). To determine their diabetes status at follow-up, participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test ( = 811 with NGT and 34 with prediabetes at baseline), excluding those with diabetes at baseline. Incidence rates for dysglycemia were reported per 1000 person-years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the predictors of progression and regression. Out of 811 individuals with NGT at baseline, 115 developed dysglycemia giving an incidence rate of 20.2 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 16.8-24.2). Among those with prediabetes at baseline, 70.6% of the individuals converted to NGT and the remaining 29.4% either got converted to diabetes or remained as prediabetes. Higher age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, 2-hour plasma glucose (2-h PG), positive family history of diabetes, and systolic blood pressure (BP) were independent predictors of incident dysglycemia, whereas lower age, waist circumference, 2-h PG, systolic BP, and triglycerides predicted regression to normoglycemia. This study highlights the growing burden of dysglycemia in Asian Indian youth and emphasizes the need for targeted preventive actions.