Predictive value of control of COPD for risk of exacerbations: An international, prospective study

The concept of control has been well defined in asthma. We have validated the proposal of control status in COPD consisting of easy‐to‐obtain clinical variables. Patients controlled had a reduced risk of exacerbations compared to uncontrolled patients. See related Editorial ABSTRACT Background and objective The concept of clinical control in COPD has been developed to help in treatment decisions, but it requires validation in prospective studies. Methods This international, multicentre, prospective study aimed to validate the concept of control in COPD. Patients with COPD were classified as controlled/uncontrolled by clinical criteria or CAT scores at baseline and followed up for 18 months. The main outcome was the difference in rate of a composite endpoint of moderate and severe exacerbations or death over the 18‐month follow‐up period. Results A total of 307 patients were analysed (mean age = 68.6 years and mean FEV1% = 52.5%). Up to 65% and 37.9% of patients were classified as controlled by clinical criteria or CAT, respectively. Controlled patients had significantly less exacerbations during follow‐up (by clinical criteria: 1.1 vs 2.6, P