A novel risk score on admission for predicting death or need for surgery in patients with acute type A intramural hematoma receiving medical therapy

There has been continuing discussion regarding the treatment strategy for acute type A intramural hematoma (IMH). Most patients are treated conservatively in Japan; hence, predicting fatal events and stratifying risks based on results normally obtained on hospital arrival are important. We aimed to examine the incidences and risk factors of death or need for surgery for acute type A IMH in patients receiving medical treatment and to identify high-risk patients using clinical findings on hospital arrival. From 2011 to 2016, 57 consecutive patients (mean age 72.5 years; male 36.8%) diagnosed with acute type A IMH who were receiving treatment at Shizuoka City Shizuoka Hospital were retrospectively included. Primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death and operation within 1 year after onset. To evaluate sensitivity and specificity of the risk factors and risk score, we estimated the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Mean follow-up duration was 621 days. Mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 129 mmHg. Computed tomography (CT) on arrival showed a mean ascending aorta diameter of 46 mm. Ulcer-like projection (ULP) in the ascending aorta and pericardial effusion (PE) were seen in 33% and 42% of cases, respectively. Twenty-eight patients (49.1%) reached the primary endpoint (cardiovascular death, 7 cases [12.3%]; operation, 21 cases [36.8%]). In univariate analysis of admission values, the primary endpoint group had significantly lower SBP (113.0 ± 28.5 vs 144.3 ± 33.5 mmHg), higher ascending aorta diameter (49.5 ± 8.1 vs 43.6 ± 5.9 mm), and higher frequency of ULP (53.8% vs 13.8%) and PE (58.6% vs 25.0%) than the event-free group. Multivariate analysis showed that ULP on admission CT was a significant predictor of the primary endpoint. The risk score was considered using these risk factors. On admission, the primary endpoint could be predicted with 89.7% sensitivity and 75% specificity (area under the ROC curve 0.823) if the patient had ULP and/or > 2 of the following factors: SBP 45 mm, and PE. SBP and CT findings on arrival were significantly associated with cardiovascular death and the need for surgery in patients with acute type A IMH receiving initial medical therapy. The novel risk score was useful for predicting cardiovascular death and surgery.