Identifying Africans with undiagnosed diabetes: Fasting plasma glucose is similar to the hemoglobin A1C updated Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities diabetes prediction equation

•Seventy percent of Africans living with diabetes are undiagnosed.•Diabetes prediction equations are critical in identifying who should be tested.•The ARIC + A1C prediction equation had excellent discrimination of undiagnosed diabetes.•Fasting glucose alone performed as well as the 9-variable ARIC + A1C equation.•In Africans FPG ≥100 mg/dL may simplify who needs additional diabetes testing. Seventy percent of Africans living with diabetes are undiagnosed. Identifying who should be referred for testing is critical. Therefore we evaluated the ability of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) diabetes prediction equation with A1C added (ARIC + A1C) to identify diabetes in 451 African-born blacks living in America (66% male; age 38 ± 10y (mean ± SD); BMI 27.5 ± 4.4 kg/m2). All participants denied a history of diabetes. OGTTs were performed. Diabetes diagnosis required 2-h glucose ≥200 mg/dL. The five non-invasive (Age, parent history of diabetes, waist circumference, height, systolic blood pressure) and four invasive variables (Fasting glucose (FPG), A1C, triglycerides (TG), HDL) were obtained. Four models were tested: Model-1: Full ARIC + A1C equation; Model-2: All five non-invasive variables with one invasive variable excluded at a time; Model-3: All five non-invasive variables with one invasive variable included at a time; Model-4: Each invasive variable singly. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AROC) predicted diabetes. Youden Index identified optimal cut-points. Diabetes occurred in 7% (30/451). Model-1, the full ARIC + A1C equation, AROC = 0.83. Model-2: With FPG excluded, AROC = 0.77 (P = 0.038), but when A1C, HDL or TG were excluded AROC remained unchanged. Model-3 with all non-invasive variables and FPG alone, AROC=0.87; but with A1C, TG or HDL included AROC declined to ≤0.76. Model-4: FPG as a single predictor, AROC = 0.87. A1C, TG, or HDL as single predictors all had AROC ≤ 0.74. Optimal cut-point for FPG was 100 mg/dL. To detect diabetes, FPG performed as well as the nine-variable updated ARIC + A1C equation.