Identification of Factors Associated With Acute Tubular Necrosis Following Kidney Transplant in Northern Mexico: Increased Risk With Cold Ischemia After 8 Hours

To identify potential risk factors associated with the incidence of acute tubular necrosis (ATN) following kidney transplant in a sample of patients from northern Mexico. Secondary analysis of data extracted from clinical files of patients who underwent a kidney transplant between 2000 and 2017 at Christus Muguerza Hospital in the city of Chihuahua. The final sample with complete data included 485 patients. ATN was diagnosed in 13.2% of patients using pathologic, clinical, and laboratory criteria. Adjusted odds ratio (ORs) with 95% CIs from multivariate binary logistic regression were used to identify predictors of ATN. Only 4 of 21 variables analyzed remained statistically significant in the final adjusted model. Cold and warm ischemia followed time-trend patterns with higher odds with longer ischemia times. For cold ischemia, compared with 0 to 240 minutes, ORs were 1.32 (95% CI, 0.49-3.51) for 241-480 minutes, 4.87 (95% CI, 2.29-10.3) for 481-960 minutes, and 10.0 (95% CI, 2.86-35.0) for > 960 minutes; for warm ischemia, compared with 40 to 59 minutes, these were 6.27 (95% CI, 1.95-20.8) for 60-70 minutes and 10.32 (95% CI, 1.95-54.4) for 71-110 minutes. Hypotension during surgery was associated with a higher chance of ATN (OR, 15.9; 95% CI, 4.97-50.9). When the recipients’ age was 30 years or older, the probability also increased significantly (OR, 2.88; 95% CI, 1.09-7.57). The final model fitted well and explained 27% of the probability to develop ATN after a kidney transplant. Shortening the duration of ischemia and avoiding hypotension during surgery is essential to prevent ATN following a kidney transplant.