Reassessment Improves Prediction of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study of 3,421 Individuals in New Zealand

A dynamic risk factor is a variable that can change across time, and as it changes, there is a corresponding change in the likelihood of the outcome. In corrections, there is evidence for dynamic risk factors when relatively more proximal reassessments enhance predictive validity for recidivism. In this article, we tested the proximity hypothesis with longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N = 68,667 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by corrections case managers). In this sample, reassessments consistently improved prediction as demonstrated by (1) incremental prediction over initial baseline scores and (2) improved model fit of the most recent assessment compared with the average of earlier scores. These results contribute to a growing body of evidence that support community corrections agencies conducting repeated assessments of the risk for imminent recidivism using a dynamic risk instrument. Public Significance Statement Corrections agencies should regularly reassess risk for recidivism during parole because updated assessments are more accurate than prior assessments. Promoting personal and situational changes related to patterns of reducing risk in the community should be a core objective for psychologists and other professionals engaged with the successful reintegration of individuals with a history of crime.