Longitudinal blood pressure patterns and cardiovascular disease risk

Observational and interventional studies have unequivocally demonstrated that "present", i.e. single-occasion, blood pressure is one of the key determinants of cardiovascular disease risk. Over the past two decades, however, numerous publications have suggested that longitudinal blood pressure data and assessment of long-term blood pressure exposure provide incremental prognostic value over present blood pressure. These studies have used several different indices to quantify the overall exposure to blood pressure, such as time-averaged blood pressure, cumulative blood pressure, blood pressure trajectory patterns, and age of hypertension onset. This review summarises existing research on the association between these indices and hard cardiovascular outcomes, outlines the strengths and weaknesses of these indices, and provides an overview of how longitudinal blood pressure changes can be measured and used to improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction. KEY MESSAGES Numerous recent publications have examined the relation between cardiovascular disease and long-term blood pressure (BP) exposure, quantified using indices such as time-averaged BP, cumulative BP, BP trajectory patterns, and age of hypertension onset. This review summarises existing research on the association between these indices and hard cardiovascular outcomes, outlines the strengths and weaknesses of these indices, and provides an overview of how longitudinal BP changes can be measured and used to improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction. Although longitudinal BP indices seem to predict cardiovascular outcomes better than present BP, there are considerable differences in the clinical feasibility of these indices along with a limited number of prospective data.