Risk of Long-Term Mortality for Complex Chronic Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Population-Based e-Cohort Observational Study

Introduction Over recent years there has been growing evidence of increased risk of mortality associated with hemorrhagic stroke among older patients. The main objective of this study is to propose and validate a prognostic life table for complex chronic patients after an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) episode in primary care settings. Methods This was a multicenter and retrospective study (April 1, 2006–December 31, 2016) of a cohort from the general population presenting an episode of ICH from which a predictive model of mortality was obtained using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. In addition, Kaplan–Meier survival curves, the log-rank test, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the ability to stratify patients according to vital prognosis. We proceeded to external validation of the model through prospective monitoring (January 1, 2013–December 31, 2017) of the population of complex chronic patients with an episode of ICH. Results A total of 3594 people aged ≥ 65 years were identified as complex chronic patients (women 55.9%; mean age, 86.1 ± 8.4 years) of whom 161 suffered hemorrhagic stroke during the study period (January 1, 2013–December 31, 2017). The primary outcome was death from any cause within 5 years of follow-up after an ICH episode. The independent prognostic factors of mortality were age > 80 years (HR 1.048, 95% CI 1.021–1.076, p