Quantitative bias analysis of the association between subclinical thyroid disease and two perfluoroalkyl substances in a single study

Exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) has been associated with the occurrence of thyroid disease in some epidemiologic studies. We hypothesized that in a specific epidemiologic study based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the association of subclinical thyroid disease with serum concentration of PFOA and PFOS was due to reverse causality. Thyroid hormone affects glomerular filtration, which in turn affects excretion of PFOA and PFOS. We evaluated this by linking a model of thyroid disease status over the lifetime to physiologically based pharmacokinetic models of PFOA and PFOS. Using Monte Carlo methods, we simulated the target study population and analyzed the data using multivariable logistic regression. The target and simulated populations were similar with respect to age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum concentrations of PFOA and PFOS, and prevalence of subclinical thyroid disease. Our findings suggest that in the target study the associations with subclinical hypothyroidism were overstated and the results for subclinical hyperthyroidism were, in general, understated. For example, for subclinical hypothyroidism in men, the reported odds ratio per ln(PFOS) increase was 1.98 (95% CI 1.19–3.28), whereas in the simulated data the bias due to reverse causality gave an odds ratio of 1.19 (1.16–1.23). Our results provide evidence of bias due to reverse causality in a specific cross-sectional study of subclinical thyroid disease with exposure to PFOA and PFOS among adults. •A PBPK model was used quantify bias in a reported PFAS-thyroid association.•A Markov chain model was used to assign thyroid function in untreated population.•Modeled thyroid function influenced renal function and therefore renal clearance.•Bias increased the reported association for hypothyroidism.•Bias decreased the reported association for hyperthyroidism.