A cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue, Brazil, 2014–2018

•Low dengue seroprevalence in the beginning of the follow-up.•There was a large dengue outbreak in the first year of follow-up, with an incidence density of 8.94 per 100 person-years•A cumulative incidence of innaparent dengue infections of 9% was observed in the first year of follow-up.•Dengue inci...

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Veröffentlicht in:Acta tropica 2020-04, Vol.204, p.105313-105313, Article 105313
Hauptverfasser: Luna, Expedito J.A., Figueiredo, Gerusa M., Levi, José E., Campos, Sérgio R.S.L.C., Felix, Alvina Clara, Souza, Nathalia Santiago e, Figueiredo, Walter M., Costa, Angela A., Cardoso, Maria R.A., Pannuti, Claudio S.
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:•Low dengue seroprevalence in the beginning of the follow-up.•There was a large dengue outbreak in the first year of follow-up, with an incidence density of 8.94 per 100 person-years•A cumulative incidence of innaparent dengue infections of 9% was observed in the first year of follow-up.•Dengue incidence declined sharply in the subsequent three years of follow-up. The present cohort study was set up with the aim of determining the incidence of dengue among children and adolescents, from 2 to 16 years of age, living in Araraquara, South-Eastern Brazil, a city classified as a mid-level endemicity location for dengue. Enrollment took place from September 2014 to March 2015. Baseline socio-demographic data were collected, and a blood sample from the participant was drawn, for dengue serology. Families were contacted weekly for fever surveillance. If the child developed fever, a nurse visited the household to collect a blood sample. PCR, NS1 and IgM were used for dengue diagnosis. Parents or legal guardians of participating children provided a written informed consent. 3,514 children and adolescents were enrolled in the cohort. Dengue baseline seroprevalence was 12.2% (95%CI: 11.1 – 13.3). The incidence density of symptomatic dengue was 8.94 per 100 person/years in the first year of follow-up, 0.58 in the second, and 0.19 in the fourth. No cases were confirmed in the third year. Incidence was associated with age, sex, baseline seroprevalence and with living in a house as opposed to an apartment. This study provides relevant information on the epidemiology of dengue in mid-level transmission settings that may be useful to policymakers in the evaluation of control strategies.
ISSN:0001-706X
1873-6254
DOI:10.1016/j.actatropica.2019.105313