The influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of CO2 emissions from transportation in China

CO2 emissions from transportation (TC) are one of the main causes of global climate change. China faces particularly severe pressures and challenges in transportation carbon reduction. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2015, this study explored the influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of TC by estimating spatial panel data models. It found that China's TC will continue to increase in the future, because the increase in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is the primary driving force to accelerate the growth of TC, but an increasing proportion of tertiary industry (PTI) in the national economy will help reduce the growth in emissions. Moreover, urban road density (URD) and per capita highway mileage (PHM) are the other two major factors promoting the growth of TC. In contrast, urban population density (UPD) has a negative direct impact on per capita CO2 emissions from transportation (PTC) but also has a larger positive spatial spillover effect, which indicates that these three factors should be properly planned and controlled. Meanwhile, we should actively advocate the development of urban public transport because it plays an important role on reducing TC. The conclusions provide important inspiration and a scientific basis for formulating policies to effectively curb the growth of CO2 emissions in China. [Display omitted] •Four spatial panel data models were employed for estimation.•PGDP, UPD, URD, NPV and PHM had positive total effects.•PTI, UPD, URD, NPT and PHM had spatial spillover effects on PTC.