Salivary HPV DNA informs locoregional disease status in advanced HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer

•Salivary HPV DNA levels align with local disease burden in HPV oropharyngeal cancer.•The rise and fall of salivary HPV DNA often predicts treatment response or failure.•Plasma HPV cell-free DNA more often correlates with distant disease burden. Quantifying tumor DNA in tissue and circulating in blood permits high-quality molecular monitoring to detect and track cancer progression. Evaluating tumor DNA in both blood and saliva in human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) could provide a non-invasive and clinically actionable method for real-time disease detection. We previously validated an ultrasensitive droplet-digital (dd)PCR assay targeting the dominant high-risk HPV subtypes causally linked to OPC. Here we enrolled an observational cohort to evaluate the predictive and prognostic potential of paired plasma-salivary tumor DNA among 21 patients with advanced HPV+OPC. In patients with recurrent, persistent locoregional (LR) disease, median baseline normalized salivary HPV DNA was 10.9 copies/ng total DNA, nearly 20x higher compared with those with distant disease only (p = 0.01). A cutoff of 5 copies/ng yielded 87% sensitivity and 67% specificity for accurately predicting LR disease. Total tumor burden among those with LR disease strongly correlated with salivary HPV DNA levels (R = 0.83, p = 0.02). The rise and fall of salivary HPV DNA predicted treatment failure and response, respectively, in all patients with LR disease, and predated imaging findings. Among paired salivary-plasma (cell-free) cfDNA samples, only higher plasma HPV cfDNA levels were associated with poor outcomes (p