Post‐intensive care unit respiratory failure in older patients liberated from intensive care unit and ventilator: The predictive value of the National Early Warning Score on intensive care unit discharge

Aim The older adult population is continuously growing worldwide and there is increasing use of medical recourse in older patients, especially for those requiring intensive care unit (ICU) care and mechanical ventilation (MV). The present study aimed to investigate the burden and predictors of post‐ICU respiratory failure in older ICU patients weaned from MV. Methods In the present retrospective study, older ICU patients aged ≥60 years, who were successfully weaned from MV and discharged to the general ward from the ICU of Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, in 2011, were included. Biomarkers on ICU discharge, as well as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) were recorded and calculated. The outcome measure was post‐ICU respiratory failure before day 14 (PIRF‐14) requiring reinstitution of MV. Logistical regression was used to assess the predictors for PIRF‐14. Results Of 272 patients included, 23 (8.5%) developed PIRF‐14. The post‐ICU in‐hospital mortality rates were 47.8% and 6.8% in patients with and without PIRF‐14 (adjusted OR 12.597, 95% CI 4.368–36.331). In a multivariate analysis, the levels of NEWS and hemoglobin on ICU discharge were independent predictors for PIRF‐14 (adjusted OR 1.273, 95% CI 1.076–1.507 and 0.645, 95% CI 0.474–0.879). In particular, patients with a NEWS of ≥10 and subsequent PIRF‐14 had a 15‐fold increased risk of mortality as compared with those without both factors (adjusted OR 15.418, 95% CI 4.344–54.720). Conclusions PIRF‐14 is associated with high mortality in older ICU patients, and NEWS is a significant predictor for PIRF‐14, which could be used to early identify patients at risk of post‐ICU respiratory failure in the specific population. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 317–322.