Assessing and predicting changes of the ecosystem service values based on land use/cover change in Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve, Xinjiang, China

Ecosystem service value (ESV) included some contributions of ecological environments to human health and living, and provide cultural and economic benefits for sustaining and fulfilling living organisms. The author selected the Ebinur lake Wetland Nature Reserve as our study site to analyze the spatial distribution and dynamics of ecosystem services, and we used 1972, 1998, 2006, 2014 and 2016 images to study land use/cover change (LUCC) over these periods. LUCC is one of the key drivers that affect ecosystem services. Firstly, in 1972–2030, land use/cover (LULC) significantly changed, with all LUCC practices increasing except for the categories of water area, bare land area and barren land/other. Secondly, changes in ESV were significant during the last 60 years. The total annual ESV in the study area decreased by 50.89% between 1972 and 2030, mostly attributable to the 6.82% growth of saline land, 0.09% growth of desert, 1% decrease of wetlands and 0.95% decrease of water bodies. Thirdly, the spatial-temporal variation of ESV was prominent. Spatial correlation was significant, and the degree of spatial clustering was relatively high in the study area, which was mainly distributed in the water body and wetland regions, and these high-value regions exhibited a decreasing trend. Low values occurred around the lake areas, which increased over time. [Display omitted] •Analyzed and predicted land use /cover change using CA-Markov model.•Analyzed and predicted ecosystem service values.