Development of a prognostic model for caries onset and progression from early childhood caries incidence in urban preschool children

Aim Of this prospective cohort study was to assess early childhood caries (ECC) incidence and, based on the data, build a model that not only predicts future ECC onset in clinically caries-free children, but also is prognostic for children with ECC. Methods ECC incidence was assessed at the 12-month follow-up examination on a cohort of 291 preschool children. Weighted general estimation equation (WGEE) was used to estimate the effects of covariates on ds (decayed primary tooth surfaces) and dfs (decayed and filled primary tooth surfaces). Results The mean dfs at the baseline examination was 0.81. Of the 116 children who completed the study, approximately 22% examined at baseline had ECC (dfs > 0). At 12-months, 36% had ECC with a mean dfs of 2.22. Children with dfs = 0 at baseline had 2.95 fewer ds in the primary dentition at the end of the study than children who had ECC at the baseline examination (dfs > 0) (p 0) (p