Modulation of Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale episodic modulation of tropical winds and precipitation that travels eastward from Asia to America, with a characteristic repeat time of 30 to 60 days. Here it is shown that when MJO wind anomalies in the lower troposphere of the eastern Pacific are westerly, Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean hurricane genesis is four times more likely than when the MJO winds are easterly. Accurate predictions of the MJO may lead to improved long-range forecasts of tropical cyclone activity.