The Use of Post-ablation Stimulated Thyroglobulin in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma – What Cut-off Values Should We Use?

Recently published international guidelines recommended using the stimulated thyroglobulin (sTg) post-radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation, in conjunction with tumour stage, as a risk stratification factor. The choice of cut-off values for sTg, namely 1 and 10 ng/ml, was, however, largely based on the functional sensitivities of the assays used, with relatively few published data addressing the prognostic impact of alternative cut-off values. Our study aims to provide data on the prognostic value of sTg at different levels of sensitivities and specificities. We conducted a retrospective review of all adult cases of differentiated thyroid carcinoma receiving RAI ablation at our centre from 2008 to 2010. All patients had sTg measured at around 6 months post-ablation. The functional sensitivity of our assay was 0.5 ng/ml. The outcome was adverse clinical event, defined as cancer-related death, persistent macroscopic disease demonstrable on imaging (including radioisotope scan) and/or receiving further treatment for persistent or recurrent disease. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was carried out. We identified 140 patients treated in the review period, with 106 of them suitable for further analysis. The reasons for exclusion included the presence of anti-thyroglobulin antibodies and medullary or anaplastic histological subtypes. Most (54.7%) had intermediate-risk disease as per the American Thyroid Association classification (2009). The median follow-up duration was 6.4 years; the minimum, excluding deaths, was 5.0 years. ROC analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of sTg for predicting adverse clinical events was >1.0 ng/ml, associated with a sensitivity of 90.9%, a specificity of 81.0%, a positive predictive value of 55.6% and a negative predictive value of 97.1%. Based on ROC analysis of sensitivities and specificities, our data showed that a post-ablation sTg value of 1 ng/ml is the optimal cut-off in prognostication of adverse clinical events. •Previous studies dichotomised thyroglobulin levels into detectable or undetectable.•Receiver operating characteristic analysis was carried out.•The most prognostic post-ablation stimulated thyroglobulin level was >1.0 ng/ml.•This level was an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analysis.•Our results validated the cut-off levels recommended in recent guidelines.