Spatial distribution of maxillofacial injuries caused by urban violence: An ecological analysis to identify high‐risk areas

Objectives To investigate the spatial and spatial‐temporal distribution of oral and maxillofacial injuries caused by urban violence, as well as to identify underlying disparities at regional level through a geostatistical approach. Methods This was a historical ecological cohort study of trauma cases caused by urban violence using aggregate data from victims assisted in a Brazilian medical‐forensic service between January 2012 and December 2015. The longitudinal patterns of change observed in each geographic area (neighbourhoods) were evaluated using the finite mixture model (FMM). The spatial autocorrelation of events was investigated using the Getis‐Ord Indicator (Gi*) to identify significant hot and cold spatial clusters. With a spatial regression model, it was also found when socioeconomic variables, residential infrastructure and neighbourhood infrastructure were associated with high incidence rates. The significance level was set at P ≤ 0.05. Results The finite mixture model revealed three different patterns of longitudinal trajectory of the incidence of oral and maxillofacial trauma caused by urban violence (TP1 to TP3, P