Identification of fragmentation mechanism and risk analysis due to explosion of cylindrical tank

[Display omitted] •The influence of generated fragments’ mass and number has been investigated.•The initial angle and velocity are determined with initial acceleration.•The range of fragments is defined by the density distribution functions.•The results of the verified procedure are presented through a risk matrix.•The probability of impact on smaller targets at a distance of 700 m is 10−6. This study presents a completely new methodology for fragmentation analysis due to the explosion of cylindrical tanks. The identification of fragments’ kinematic parameters was accomplished with an exact system of differential equations of motion with good convergence and high accuracy of numerical results. The fluctuation effect of the aerodynamic force of the fragments on their range is interpreted by statistical distributions. The direction and intensity of the fragments’ initial velocity are determined by the inertial model. An original probabilistic mass method is proposed to represent the discrete distribution of the number of generated fragments. The correlation between the number and mass of the fragments was established by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimation of the fracture lines was carried out by the tank stress mapping procedure using data from the ANSYS software. The identification of potential fracture lines with the knowledge of the number-to-mass dependence of the fragments allows a reliable estimate of the shape of the generated fragments. The estimated sectoral risk due to tank fragmentation is consistent with literary accident data. The presented methodology can be fully applied to the assessment of the risk of other types of tanks and process installations.