Probabilistic modelling of safety and damage blast risks for window glazing

There are many computational techniques to model the consequences to built infrastructure when subject to explosive blast loads; however, the majority of these do not account for the uncertainties associated with system response or blast loading. This paper describes a new computational model, called "Blast-RF" (Blast Risks for Facades), that incorporates existing (deterministic) blast-response models within an environment that considers threat and (or) vulnerability uncertainties and variability using probability and structural reliability theory. The structural reliability analysis uses stress limit states and the UK Glazing Hazard Guide's rating criteria to calculate probabilities of glazing damage and occupant safety hazards conditional on a given blast scenario. This allows the prediction of likelihood and extent of damage and (or) casualties, useful information for risk mitigation considerations, emergency service's contingency and response planning, collateral damage estimation, weaponeering, and post-blast forensic analysis.