Warm Season Variations in the Low-Level Circulation and Precipitation over the Central United States in Observations, AMIP Simulations, and Idealized SST Experiments

Sea surface temperature (SST) linkages to central U.S. low-level circulation and precipitation variability are investigated from the perspective of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) and recurring modes of SST variability. The observed and simulated links are first examined via GPLLJ index regressions to precipitation, SST, and large-scale circulation fields in the NCEP–NCAR and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalyses, and NASA’s Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP1) and Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3) ensemble mean Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations for the 1949–2002 (1979–2002 for NARR) period. Characteristics of the low-level circulation and its related precipitation are further examined in the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group idealized climate model simulations (NSIPP1 and CCM3) forced with varying polarities of recurring modes of SST variability. It is found that the observed and simulated correlations of the GPLLJ index to Atlantic and Pacific SST, large-scale atmospheric circulation, and Great Plains precipitation variability for 1949–2002 are robust during the July–September (JAS) season and show connections to a distinct global-scale SST variability pattern, one similar to that used in forcing the NSIPP1 and CCM3 idealized simulations, and a subtropical Atlantic-based sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly with a maximum over the Gulf of Mexico. The idealized simulations demonstrate that a warm Pacific and/or a cold Atlantic are influential over regional hydroclimate features including the monthly preference for maximum GPLLJ and precipitation in the seasonal cycle. Furthermore, it appears that the regional expression of globally derived SST variability is important for generating an anomalous atmospheric low-level response of consequence to the GPLLJ, especially when the SST anomaly is positioned over a regional maximum in climatological SST, and in this case the Western Hemisphere warm pool.