Finite element modeling of potential Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunamis

Evidence of historic Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis have prompted hydrodynamic modeling efforts to identify potential flow patterns and coastal hazards for plausible future events. In this study we identify the methods used to derive potential seismic source scenarios and present a thorough evaluation of finite element simulations of the tsunamis associated with those scenarios. The first part of this paper deals with regional impacts of potential tsunamis, while the second part evaluates the fate of the modeled waves from the local perspectives of Seaside, OR and Newport, OR. Both parts are composed of physical as well as numerical interpretations of the simulations. Note: A more comprehensive version of this article, http://www.ccalmr.ogi.edu/STH/online/volumel7/numberl/mbp/ is available from the Science of Tsunami Hazards web site. The web version contains more extensive results and analyses for each of the tsunami scenarios considered in this study, and includes selected color plots and animations.