Mass balance of a slope glacier on Kilimanjaro and its sensitivity to climate

Meteorological and glaciological measurements obtained at 5873 m a.s.l. on Kersten Glacier, a slope glacier on the southern flanks of Kilimanjaro, are used to run a physically‐based mass balance model for the period February 2005 to January 2006. This shows that net shortwave radiation is the most variable energy flux at the glacier‐atmosphere interface, governed by surface albedo. The majority of the mass loss (∼65%) is due to sublimation (direct conversion of snow/ice to water vapour), with melting of secondary importance. Sensitivity experiments reveal that glacier mass balance is 2–4 times more sensitive to a 20% precipitation change than to a 1 °C air temperature change. These figures also hold when the model is run with input data representative of a longer term (1979–2004) mean period. Results suggest that a regional‐scale moisture projection for the 21st century is crucial to a physically‐based prediction of glacier retention on Africa's highest mountain. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society