How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?
Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more s...
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| description | Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number
Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more slowly. In this paper, using the past data for sunspot cycles 1–23, these aspects are re-examined. It was noticed that the inverse relationship between
Rz(max) and rise-time is discernable only when average patterns obtained by superposition of several cycles (separately for strong and weak cycles) are compared. In individual cycles, considerable deviations from the average patterns can occur (several tens of units of
Rz and several months of rise-time). For a study of the relationship of
Rz(max) with features in the early part of a cycle, the features chosen were
Ro (i.e.,
Rz(min)) and
Rz values
Ra,
Rb, and
Rc, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively, later than
Ro (only 12-monthly running means were used).
Ro had a moderate correlation ( |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.jastp.2008.04.010 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_20894885</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><els_id>S1364682608001089</els_id><sourcerecordid>20894885</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c364t-587287e8f9ceb3d2fe29c1577b8af81961039ce4f70f2b7984fd63700094faf83</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kLFOwzAQhiMEEqXwBCxeYEs4O25iDwghVChSJRYQo-U6Z-EqjYOdgPr2uLRiZDpL99395y_LLikUFGh1sy7WOg59wQBEAbwACkfZhIpa5lQwfpzeZcXzSrDqNDuLcQ0ANRPVJJsv_DcZI9qxJS6S4QPJu26bDToMBK1FMxDrA-kDNs4MznfEW6JJHLvY-4GYrWnx7jw7sbqNeHGo0-ztcf76sMiXL0_PD_fL3KT4IZ-JFFqjsNLgqmyYRSYNndX1SmgrqKwolKnFbQ2WrWopuG2qsk7HSm4TUU6z6_3ePvjPEeOgNi4abFvdoR-jYiAkF2KWwHIPmuBjDGhVH9xGh62ioHbK1Fr9KlM7ZQq4SsrS1NVhvY5Gtzbozrj4N8pgJmUJPHG3ew7TX7-SKRWNw84kRSEJU413_-b8AN9GghU</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>20894885</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?</title><source>Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete</source><creator>Kane, R.P.</creator><creatorcontrib>Kane, R.P.</creatorcontrib><description>Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number
Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more slowly. In this paper, using the past data for sunspot cycles 1–23, these aspects are re-examined. It was noticed that the inverse relationship between
Rz(max) and rise-time is discernable only when average patterns obtained by superposition of several cycles (separately for strong and weak cycles) are compared. In individual cycles, considerable deviations from the average patterns can occur (several tens of units of
Rz and several months of rise-time). For a study of the relationship of
Rz(max) with features in the early part of a cycle, the features chosen were
Ro (i.e.,
Rz(min)) and
Rz values
Ra,
Rb, and
Rc, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively, later than
Ro (only 12-monthly running means were used).
Ro had a moderate correlation (<0.6) with
Rz(max), but
Ra,
Rb,
Rc had better correlations. For hindsight predictions for cycles 18–23, the predictions for cycle 19 was grossly erroneous (observed value almost double of the predicted value). For other cycles, the errors were within 25%. For cycle 24, the
Rz monthly values up to March 2008 give 12-month running means centered in June, July, August, September 2007 as 7.6, 6.5,
5.8, 6.1. Thus, though we cannot be
absolutely sure yet that
Rz(min) for cycle 24 has occurred, a tentative, provisional prediction using
Rz(min) (i.e.,
Ro) as 5.8 is
Rz(max)=113±19, i.e., in the range 94–132. This is an
upper limit, as
Ro value may reduce further in coming months,
but most probably not very much. For
Ro=5.0, the prediction would be
Rz(max)= 109±17, while in the extreme hypothetical case of
Ro=0.0, the prediction would be
Rz(max)=79±14.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1364-6826</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1879-1824</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2008.04.010</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Earth, ocean, space ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; Physics of the ionosphere ; Physics of the magnetosphere ; Predictions ; Sunspot cycle ; Sunspot maxima ; Waldmeier effect</subject><ispartof>Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics, 2008-08, Vol.70 (11), p.1533-1540</ispartof><rights>2008</rights><rights>2008 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c364t-587287e8f9ceb3d2fe29c1577b8af81961039ce4f70f2b7984fd63700094faf83</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c364t-587287e8f9ceb3d2fe29c1577b8af81961039ce4f70f2b7984fd63700094faf83</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682608001089$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,3537,27901,27902,65306</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=20599304$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Kane, R.P.</creatorcontrib><title>How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?</title><title>Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics</title><description>Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number
Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more slowly. In this paper, using the past data for sunspot cycles 1–23, these aspects are re-examined. It was noticed that the inverse relationship between
Rz(max) and rise-time is discernable only when average patterns obtained by superposition of several cycles (separately for strong and weak cycles) are compared. In individual cycles, considerable deviations from the average patterns can occur (several tens of units of
Rz and several months of rise-time). For a study of the relationship of
Rz(max) with features in the early part of a cycle, the features chosen were
Ro (i.e.,
Rz(min)) and
Rz values
Ra,
Rb, and
Rc, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively, later than
Ro (only 12-monthly running means were used).
Ro had a moderate correlation (<0.6) with
Rz(max), but
Ra,
Rb,
Rc had better correlations. For hindsight predictions for cycles 18–23, the predictions for cycle 19 was grossly erroneous (observed value almost double of the predicted value). For other cycles, the errors were within 25%. For cycle 24, the
Rz monthly values up to March 2008 give 12-month running means centered in June, July, August, September 2007 as 7.6, 6.5,
5.8, 6.1. Thus, though we cannot be
absolutely sure yet that
Rz(min) for cycle 24 has occurred, a tentative, provisional prediction using
Rz(min) (i.e.,
Ro) as 5.8 is
Rz(max)=113±19, i.e., in the range 94–132. This is an
upper limit, as
Ro value may reduce further in coming months,
but most probably not very much. For
Ro=5.0, the prediction would be
Rz(max)= 109±17, while in the extreme hypothetical case of
Ro=0.0, the prediction would be
Rz(max)=79±14.</description><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>External geophysics</subject><subject>Physics of the ionosphere</subject><subject>Physics of the magnetosphere</subject><subject>Predictions</subject><subject>Sunspot cycle</subject><subject>Sunspot maxima</subject><subject>Waldmeier effect</subject><issn>1364-6826</issn><issn>1879-1824</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2008</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kLFOwzAQhiMEEqXwBCxeYEs4O25iDwghVChSJRYQo-U6Z-EqjYOdgPr2uLRiZDpL99395y_LLikUFGh1sy7WOg59wQBEAbwACkfZhIpa5lQwfpzeZcXzSrDqNDuLcQ0ANRPVJJsv_DcZI9qxJS6S4QPJu26bDToMBK1FMxDrA-kDNs4MznfEW6JJHLvY-4GYrWnx7jw7sbqNeHGo0-ztcf76sMiXL0_PD_fL3KT4IZ-JFFqjsNLgqmyYRSYNndX1SmgrqKwolKnFbQ2WrWopuG2qsk7HSm4TUU6z6_3ePvjPEeOgNi4abFvdoR-jYiAkF2KWwHIPmuBjDGhVH9xGh62ioHbK1Fr9KlM7ZQq4SsrS1NVhvY5Gtzbozrj4N8pgJmUJPHG3ew7TX7-SKRWNw84kRSEJU413_-b8AN9GghU</recordid><startdate>20080801</startdate><enddate>20080801</enddate><creator>Kane, R.P.</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>KL.</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20080801</creationdate><title>How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?</title><author>Kane, R.P.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c364t-587287e8f9ceb3d2fe29c1577b8af81961039ce4f70f2b7984fd63700094faf83</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2008</creationdate><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>External geophysics</topic><topic>Physics of the ionosphere</topic><topic>Physics of the magnetosphere</topic><topic>Predictions</topic><topic>Sunspot cycle</topic><topic>Sunspot maxima</topic><topic>Waldmeier effect</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Kane, R.P.</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><jtitle>Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Kane, R.P.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?</atitle><jtitle>Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics</jtitle><date>2008-08-01</date><risdate>2008</risdate><volume>70</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>1533</spage><epage>1540</epage><pages>1533-1540</pages><issn>1364-6826</issn><eissn>1879-1824</eissn><abstract>Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number
Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more slowly. In this paper, using the past data for sunspot cycles 1–23, these aspects are re-examined. It was noticed that the inverse relationship between
Rz(max) and rise-time is discernable only when average patterns obtained by superposition of several cycles (separately for strong and weak cycles) are compared. In individual cycles, considerable deviations from the average patterns can occur (several tens of units of
Rz and several months of rise-time). For a study of the relationship of
Rz(max) with features in the early part of a cycle, the features chosen were
Ro (i.e.,
Rz(min)) and
Rz values
Ra,
Rb, and
Rc, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively, later than
Ro (only 12-monthly running means were used).
Ro had a moderate correlation (<0.6) with
Rz(max), but
Ra,
Rb,
Rc had better correlations. For hindsight predictions for cycles 18–23, the predictions for cycle 19 was grossly erroneous (observed value almost double of the predicted value). For other cycles, the errors were within 25%. For cycle 24, the
Rz monthly values up to March 2008 give 12-month running means centered in June, July, August, September 2007 as 7.6, 6.5,
5.8, 6.1. Thus, though we cannot be
absolutely sure yet that
Rz(min) for cycle 24 has occurred, a tentative, provisional prediction using
Rz(min) (i.e.,
Ro) as 5.8 is
Rz(max)=113±19, i.e., in the range 94–132. This is an
upper limit, as
Ro value may reduce further in coming months,
but most probably not very much. For
Ro=5.0, the prediction would be
Rz(max)= 109±17, while in the extreme hypothetical case of
Ro=0.0, the prediction would be
Rz(max)=79±14.</abstract><cop>Oxford</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><doi>10.1016/j.jastp.2008.04.010</doi><tpages>8</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Physics of the ionosphere Physics of the magnetosphere Predictions Sunspot cycle Sunspot maxima Waldmeier effect |
| title | How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle? |
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