How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?
Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more s...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics 2008-08, Vol.70 (11), p.1533-1540 |
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Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number
Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more slowly. In this paper, using the past data for sunspot cycles 1–23, these aspects are re-examined. It was noticed that the inverse relationship between
Rz(max) and rise-time is discernable only when average patterns obtained by superposition of several cycles (separately for strong and weak cycles) are compared. In individual cycles, considerable deviations from the average patterns can occur (several tens of units of
Rz and several months of rise-time). For a study of the relationship of
Rz(max) with features in the early part of a cycle, the features chosen were
Ro (i.e.,
Rz(min)) and
Rz values
Ra,
Rb, and
Rc, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively, later than
Ro (only 12-monthly running means were used).
Ro had a moderate correlation ( |
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ISSN: | 1364-6826 1879-1824 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jastp.2008.04.010 |