Serious further offences: An exploration of risk and typologies

This study examined 94 serious further offences (SFOs) committed by offenders managed by the London Probation Area over a 14-month period between 2004 and 2006. Data was collated on background and criminogenic variables for the sample, as well as retrospectively administering a range of validated actuarial measures of risk prediction. The predictive validity of key variables embedded within the probation OASys tool were also examined, specifically the utility of the DSPD variables and the OGRS and OGRS-2. The SFO offender characteristics — in keeping with previous studies — were wide ranging, as were the risk profiles of the offenders, the majority of whom fell into the medium risk range. The risk assessment and personality-based assessment tools routinely available to the probation service — that is, DSPD and OGRS scores — were found to be at least as accurate as other actuarially based methods of risk prediction. There were no clear identifying features of this sample of offenders which seemed to differentiate them from a much wider sample of the probation caseload, although the research was not designed to provide a comparison study. However, examination of the nature of the SFOs suggested there were some key situational contexts which were associated with serious harm to others (rather than simply likelihood of re-offending). These contexts included pervasive weapon use, unexpected victim responses during acquisitive crimes, and disputes occurring within an anti-social male subculture. Recommendations included a greater emphasis on harm reduction approaches to probation interventions in terms of risky lifestyles and weapon use.