A simple model for quantifying "Cryptosporidium" transport, dilution, and potential risk in reservoirs

A simple model has been developed to assist in quantifying the concentration and viability of Cryptosporidium contamination in lakes and reservoirs after riverine inflows. The model, which can be accessed online, includes the basic dynamics of inflows, along with fate transformations associated with temperature, ultraviolet light exposure, and sedimentation. The model was applied to inflow occurrences in three reservoirs to demonstrate its ability to simply quantify pathogen concentration. In addition to assisting with risk assessment, the model can also be used to improve sampling strategies after inflows occur.