Observed and modeled meridional overturning circulation related flow into the Caribbean

A major pathway of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is the warm inflow into the Caribbean Sea. The transport and the contribution of water from the South Atlantic is calculated from observations (ADCP data and hydrography) and compared to the results of the ° FLAME model. The model and the observations show high consistency in the strength of the mean total inflow and its range of variability as well as in the general distribution of water from South Atlantic origin. The measurements give an annual mean South Atlantic Water (SAW) transport into the Caribbean of 9.3 Sv with high variability. This estimate has to be regarded as a lower bound since the present method (using temperature and salinity data) cannot identify the SAW included in the North Equatorial Current (NEC), which recirculated and was transformed in the interior tropical Atlantic. The model transport reproduces the observational values rather closely, with an annual mean inflow of 8.6 Sv and similar high variability. Closer inspection of the SAW pathways in the model suggest that the additional contribution by the NEC‐pathway is only about 2 Sv. The model results confirm the relative importance of the MOC pathways suggested by observations: the Caribbean inflow seems to be the main pathway (63%) for the warm and central water (σθ < 27.1 kg m−3), whereas for the intermediate water a larger fraction (59%) is transported northward at the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles.