Variability of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet: Large-Scale Circulation Context and Hydroclimate Impacts

Variability of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is analyzed from the perspective of larger-scale, lower-frequency influences and regional hydroclimate impacts as opposed to the usual analysis of its frequency, diurnal variability, and mesoscale structure. The circulation-centric core analysis is conducted with monthly data from the high spatiotemporal resolution, precipitation-assimilating North American Regional Reanalysis, and the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) (as necessary) to identify the recurrent patterns of GPLLJ variability and their large-scale circulation links. The links are first investigated from regressions of an index representing meridional wind speed in the climatological jet-core region; the core region itself is defined from analysis of seasonal and diurnal variability of the jet structure and moisture fluxes. The analysis reveals that GPLLJ variability is, indeed, linked to coherent, large-scale, upper-level height patterns over the Pacific and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the Atlantic. A Rossby wave source analysis shows the Pacific height pattern to be potentially linked to tropical diabatic heating anomalies in the west-central basin and in the eastern Pacific sector. EOF analysis of GPLLJ variability shows it to be composed of three modes that, together, account for ∼75% of the variance. The modes represent the strengthening/expansion of the jet core (38%), with a strong precipitation impact on the northern Great Plains, and linked to post-peak-phase ENSO variability; meridional shift of the GPLLJ (23%), with a Gulf states precipitation focus, and linked to pre-peak-phase ENSO variability; and in-place strengthening of the GPLLJ (12%), with dipolar influence on Great Plains and Gulf states precipitation, and linked to summer NAO variability.