Relationship between abdominal adiposity and incident chronic kidney disease in young- to middle-aged working men: a retrospective cohort study

Background Obesity is a risk factor for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, it remains to be fully examined whether fatness is more useful in predicting incident CKD. We aimed this study to determine the association of body fat, body mass index and waist circumference (WC) with subsequent changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and incident CKD in young- to middle-aged working men. Methods We analyzed data from annual health check-up in male workers aged from 20 to 60 years with basal eGFR of 60–90 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . Cut-off values of parameters and odds ratio (OR) for the incident CKD were calculated by receiver operator characteristics analysis and χ 2 test, respectively. We also tested trends of changes in eGFR according to changes in WC in each age decade. Results There were 8,015 men participants. During the 5-year follow-up, 11.0% of the participants ( N = 878) had developed to incident CKD. When basal WC was greater than 80.0 cm, which was decided by Youden’s Index, there was a significantly higher risk of incident CKD [OR 1.57 (95% confident interval 1.35–1.84)]. Changes in WC over 5 years were significantly related to eGFR decline in young men ( 80.0 cm is a risk factor for incident CKD and strongly associated with a decline in eGFR in the young- to middle-aged working healthy men.