Winter cloudiness variability in the Mediterranean region and its connection to atmospheric circulation features

The temporal and spatial variability of winter total cloud cover in southern Europe and the Mediterranean region and its connection to the synoptic-scale features of the general atmospheric circulation are examined for the period 1950–2005, by using the diagnostic and intrinsic NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data sets. At first, S-mode factor analysis is applied to the time series of winter cloud cover, revealing five factors that correspond to the main modes of inter-annual variability of cloudiness. The linkage between each of the five factors and the atmospheric circulation is examined by constructing the 500 hPa and 1,000 hPa geopotential height anomaly patterns that correspond to the highest/lowest factor scores. Then, k-means cluster analysis is applied to the factor scores time series, classifying the 56 years into six distinct clusters that describe the main modes of spatial distribution of cloudiness. Eventually, canonical correlation analysis is applied to the factor scores time series of: (1) 500 and 1,000 hPa geopotential heights over Europe and the North Atlantic Ocean and (2) total cloud cover over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, in order to define the main centers of action in the middle and the lower troposphere that control winter cloudiness variability in the various sub-regions of the area under study. Three statistically significant canonical pairs are revealed, defining the main modes of atmospheric circulation forcing on cloudiness variability. North Atlantic oscillation and European blocking activity modulate the highest percentage of cloudiness variability. A statistically significant negative trend of winter cloudiness is found for central and southern Europe and the Mediterranean region. This negative trend is associated with the corresponding positive trends in NAO and European blocking activity.