Signal intensity alteration within infrapatellar fat pad predicts knee replacement within 5 years: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

To investigate whether infrapatellar fat pad (IPFP) signal intensity (SI) alteration predicts the occurrence of knee replacement (KR) in knee osteoarthritis (OA) patients over 5 years. The subjects were selected from Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) study. Case knees (n = 127) were defined as those who received KR during 5 years follow-up visit. They were matched by gender, age and radiographic status with control knees (n = 127). We used T2-weighted MR images to measure IPFP SI alteration using a newly developed algorithm in MATLAB. The measurements were assessed at baseline (BL), T0 (the visit just before KR) and 1 year before T0 (T-1). Conditional logistic regression was used to analyse the associations between IPFP SI alterations and the risk of KR. Participants were mostly female (57%), with an average age of 63.7 years old and a mean body mass index (BMI) of 29.5 kg/m2. In multivariable analysis, the standard deviation (SD) of IPFP SI [sDev (IPFP)] and the ratio of high SI region volume to whole IPFP volume [Percentage (H)] measured at BL were significantly associated with increased risks of KR after adjustment for covariates. IPFP SI alterations measured at T-1 including sDev (IPFP), Percentage (H) and clustering effect of high SI [Clustering factor (H)] were significantly associated with higher risks of KR. All measurements were significantly associated with higher risks of KR at T0. IPFP SI is associated with the occurrence of KR suggesting it may play a role in end-stage knee OA.