Modeling recovery curves with application to prostatectomy

In many clinical settings, a patient outcome takes the form of a scalar time series with a recovery curve shape, which is characterized by a sharp drop due to a disruptive event (e.g., surgery) and subsequent monotonic smooth rise towards an asymptotic level not exceeding the pre-event value. We propose a Bayesian model that predicts recovery curves based on information available before the disruptive event. A recovery curve of interest is the quantified sexual function of prostate cancer patients after prostatectomy surgery. We illustrate the utility of our model as a pre-treatment medical decision aid, producing personalized predictions that are both interpretable and accurate. We uncover covariate relationships that agree with and supplement that in existing medical literature.