MAP D‐PHASE: real‐time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems

Mesoscale Alpine Programme Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of Flood Events (MAP D‐PHASE) is a forecast demonstration project aiming at demonstrating recent improvements in the operational use of end‐to‐end forecasting system consisting of atmospheric models, hydrological prediction systems, nowcasting tools and warnings for end‐users. Both deterministic and ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) have been implemented for the European Alps (atmospheric models) and a selection of mesoscale river basins (hydrological models) in Central Europe. A first insight into MAP D‐PHASE with focus on operational ensemble hydrological simulations is presented here. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society