EFAS forecasts for the March–April 2006 flood in the Czech part of the Elbe River Basin—a case study

EFAS forecasts for the March–April 2006 flood in the Czech part of the Elbe River Basin—a case study

In spring 2006, the Elbe River Basin was hit by severe snowmelt‐driven floods. This article investigates the performance of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) forecasts for this event in the Czech part of the Elbe River Basin. EFAS runs preoperationally at the European Commission DG Joint Resear...

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Veröffentlicht in:Atmospheric science letters 2008-04, Vol.9 (2), p.88-94
Hauptverfasser: Younis, Jalal, Ramos, Maria‐Helena, Thielen, Jutta
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Elbe River
Ensemble forecasting
ensemble predictions
Flood forecasting
Flood warnings
Floods
Forecasting
Hydrologic analysis
Hydrology
Research facilities
River basins
Rivers
Snowmelt
warning
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Zusammenfassung:In spring 2006, the Elbe River Basin was hit by severe snowmelt‐driven floods. This article investigates the performance of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) forecasts for this event in the Czech part of the Elbe River Basin. EFAS runs preoperationally at the European Commission DG Joint Research Centre where it is developed and tested in close collaboration with the National Hydrological Services. The analysis shows that EFAS forecasts were able to detect a signal of probability of flooding up to 8–10 days in advance. The added value of ensemble forecasts to early flood warning is illustrated. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
ISSN:1530-261X
1530-261X
DOI:10.1002/asl.179